Integrated post-discharge transitional care in a hospitalist system to improve discharge outcome: An experimental study.
BMC Med. 2011 Aug 17;9(1):96
Authors: Shu CC, Hsu NC, Lin YF, Wang JY, Lin JW, Ko WJ
Abstract
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Do hospitalist physicians improve the quality of inpatient care delivery? A systematic review of process, efficiency and outcome measures.
BMC Med. 2011 May 18;9(1):58
Authors: White HL, Glazier RH
ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND…

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Modelling the progression of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) in Vietnam and the opportunities for reassortment with other influenza viruses.

BMC Med. 2009;7:43

Authors: Boni MF, Manh BH, Thai PQ, Farrar J, Hien TT, Hien NT, Van Kinh N, Horby P

BACKGROUND: A novel variant of influenza A (H1N1) is causing a pandemic and, although the illness is usually mild, there are concerns that its virulence could change through reassortment with other influenza viruses. This is of greater concern in parts of Southeast Asia, where the population density is high, influenza is less seasonal, human-animal contact is common and avian influenza is still endemic. METHODS: We developed an age- and spatially-structured mathematical model in order to estimate the potential impact of pandemic H1N1 in Vietnam and the opportunities for reassortment with animal influenza viruses. The model tracks human infection among domestic animal owners and non-owners and also estimates the numbers of animals may be exposed to infected humans. RESULTS: In the absence of effective interventions, the model predicts that the introduction of pandemic H1N1 will result in an epidemic that spreads to half of Vietnam’s provinces within 57 days (interquartile range (IQR): 45-86.5) and peaks 81 days after introduction (IQR: 62.5-121 days). For the current published range of the 2009 H1N1 influenza’s basic reproductive number (1.2-3.1), we estimate a median of 410,000 cases among swine owners (IQR: 220,000-670,000) with 460,000 exposed swine (IQR: 260,000-740,000), 350,000 cases among chicken owners (IQR: 170,000-630,000) with 3.7 million exposed chickens (IQR: 1.9 M-6.4 M), and 51,000 cases among duck owners (IQR: 24,000 – 96,000), with 1.2 million exposed ducks (IQR: 0.6 M-2.1 M). The median number of overall human infections in Vietnam for this range of the basic reproductive number is 6.4 million (IQR: 4.4 M-8.0 M). CONCLUSION: It is likely that, in the absence of effective interventions, the introduction of a novel H1N1 into a densely populated country such as Vietnam will result in a widespread epidemic. A large epidemic in a country with intense human-animal interaction and continued co-circulation of other seasonal and avian viruses would provide substantial opportunities for H1N1 to acquire new genes.

PMID: 19728864 [PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]

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Seasonal transmission potential and activity peaks of the new influenza A(H1N1): a Monte Carlo likelihood analysis based on human mobility.

BMC Med. 2009;7:45

Authors: Balcan D, Hu H, Goncalves B, Bajardi P, Poletto C, Ramasco JJ, Paolotti D, Perra N, Tizzoni M, Van den Broeck W, Colizza V, Vespignani A

BACKGROUND: On 11 June the World Health Organization officially raised the phase of pandemic alert (with regard to the new H1N1 influenza strain) to level 6. As of 19 July, 137,232 cases of the H1N1 influenza strain have been officially confirmed in 142 different countries, and the pandemic unfolding in the Southern hemisphere is now under scrutiny to gain insights about the next winter wave in the Northern hemisphere. A major challenge is pre-emptied by the need to estimate the transmission potential of the virus and to assess its dependence on seasonality aspects in order to be able to use numerical models capable of projecting the spatiotemporal pattern of the pandemic. METHODS: In the present work, we use a global structured metapopulation model integrating mobility and transportation data worldwide. The model considers data on 3,362 subpopulations in 220 different countries and individual mobility across them. The model generates stochastic realizations of the epidemic evolution worldwide considering 6 billion individuals, from which we can gather information such as prevalence, morbidity, number of secondary cases and number and date of imported cases for each subpopulation, all with a time resolution of 1 day. In order to estimate the transmission potential and the relevant model parameters we used the data on the chronology of the 2009 novel influenza A(H1N1). The method is based on the maximum likelihood analysis of the arrival time distribution generated by the model in 12 countries seeded by Mexico by using 1 million computationally simulated epidemics. An extended chronology including 93 countries worldwide seeded before 18 June was used to ascertain the seasonality effects. RESULTS: We found the best estimate R0 = 1.75 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.64 to 1.88) for the basic reproductive number. Correlation analysis allows the selection of the most probable seasonal behavior based on the observed pattern, leading to the identification of plausible scenarios for the future unfolding of the pandemic and the estimate of pandemic activity peaks in the different hemispheres. We provide estimates for the number of hospitalizations and the attack rate for the next wave as well as an extensive sensitivity analysis on the disease parameter values. We also studied the effect of systematic therapeutic use of antiviral drugs on the epidemic timeline. CONCLUSION: The analysis shows the potential for an early epidemic peak occurring in October/November in the Northern hemisphere, likely before large-scale vaccination campaigns could be carried out. The baseline results refer to a worst-case scenario in which additional mitigation policies are not considered. We suggest that the planning of additional mitigation policies such as systematic antiviral treatments might be the key to delay the activity peak in order to restore the effectiveness of the vaccination programs.

PMID: 19744314 [PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]

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Sodium bicarbonate-based hydration prevents contrast-induced nephropathy: a meta-analysis.

BMC Med. 2009;7:23

Authors: Meier P, Ko DT, Tamura A, Tamhane U, Gurm HS

BACKGROUND: Contrast-induced nephropathy is the leading cause of in-hospital acute renal failure. This side effect of contrast agents leads to increased morbidity, mortality, and health costs. Ensuring adequate hydration prior to contrast exposure is highly effective at preventing this complication, although the optimal hydration strategy to prevent contrast-induced nephropathy still remains an unresolved issue. Former meta-analyses and several recent studies have shown conflicting results regarding the protective effect of sodium bicarbonate. The objective of this study was to assess the effectiveness of normal saline versus sodium bicarbonate for prevention of contrast-induced nephropathy. METHODS: The study searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane databases, International Pharmaceutical Abstracts database, ISI Web of Science (until 15 December 2008), and conference proceedings for randomized controlled trials that compared normal saline with sodium bicarbonate-based hydration regimen regarding contrast-induced nephropathy. Random-effects models were used to calculate summary odds ratios. RESULTS: A total of 17 trials including 2,633 subjects were pooled. Pre-procedural hydration with sodium bicarbonate was associated with a significant decrease in the rate of contrast-induced nephropathy (odds ratios 0.52; 95% confidence interval 0.34-0.80, P = 0.003). Number needed to treat to prevent one case of contrast-induced nephropathy was 16 (95% confidence interval 10-34). No significant differences in the rates of post-procedure hemodialysis (P = 0.20) or death (P = 0.53) was observed. CONCLUSION: Sodium bicarbonate-based hydration was found to be superior to normal saline in prevention of contrast-induced nephropathy in this updated meta-analysis.

PMID: 19439062 [PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]

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Where is the supporting evidence for treating mild to moderate chronic obstructive pulmonary disease exacerbations with antibiotics? A systematic review.

BMC Med. 2008;6:28

Authors: Puhan MA, Vollenweider D, Steurer J, Bossuyt PM, Ter Riet G

BACKGROUND: Randomised trials comparing different drugs head-to-head are extremely valuable for clinical decision-making. However, it is scientifically and ethically sensible to demand strong evidence that a drug is effective by showing superiority over a placebo before embarking on head-to-head comparisons of potentially ineffective drugs. Our aim was to study the evolvement of evidence from placebo-controlled and head-to-head trials on the effects of antibiotics for the treatment of mild to moderate exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. METHODS: We conducted a historical systematic review. Through electronic databases and hand-searches, we identified placebo-controlled and head-to-head antibiotic trials for the treatment of mild to moderate chronic obstructive pulmonary disease exacerbations. We compared the numbers of patients recruited in placebo-controlled and head-to-head trials between 1957 and 2005. Using cumulative meta-analysis of placebo-controlled trials, we determined when, if ever, placebo-controlled trials had shown convincing evidence that antibiotics are effective in preventing treatment failure in patients with mild to moderate chronic obstructive pulmonary disease exacerbations. RESULTS: The first head-to-head trial was published in 1963. It was followed by another 100 trials comparing different antibiotics in a total of 34,029 patients with mild to moderate chronic obstructive pulmonary disease exacerbations. Over time, the cumulative odds ratio in placebo-controlled trials remained inconclusive throughout with odds ratios ranging from 0.39 (95% confidence intervals 0.04-4.22) to the most recent estimate (1995) of 0.81 (95% confidence intervals 0.52-1.28, P = 0.37). CONCLUSION: Placebo-controlled trials do not support the use of antibiotics in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients with mild to moderate exacerbations. Conducting head-to-head trials is, therefore, scientifically and ethically questionable. This underscores the requirement to perform or study systematic reviews of placebo-controlled trials before conducting head-to-head trials.

PMID: 18847478 [PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]

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